The Two Year Plan
Arthur McCabe is the Chairman or leader of his political party in the town of Hackendale, population about 23,000. His party has just suffered a complete defeat at the polls in a municipal election. In the larger picture, his party also lost the incumbent Congressman, the State Senator, and the United States Senator. The Governor, also of McCabe’s party, was not up for election or he might have gone down too.
Everybody had different explanations for the defeat. Conservatives said the party was too liberal and the liberals said it was too conservative. Some said the candidates were no good. Reasons ranged from Washington policies to Hackendale garbage collection.
Whatever the real reasons, McCabe was in danger of losing his party leadership unless he could demonstrate in the very near future some professional planning that would put his party back in office two years later. As a sincere and dedicated politician, he frankly wanted to keep leadership in the hands of an experienced “pro” – – namely, Art McCabe.
Here are some of the areas in which McCabe thought it necessary to do something — and some of the facts in each area that McCabe took into consideration in his planning.
- Election Statistics*
*Footnote: (Reading horizontally, the first, second and fifth lines total accurately but the third and fourth do not. The reason is that “eligible voters” and” registered voters” include unaffiliated voters, whereas in the election, only McCabe’s party and the opposition were on the ballot, so these people had to vote for one or the other. )
McCabe knows from experience that about 75 of registered voters in his area actually vote. Maximum effort is always put into the attempt to get 100, but the percentage stays relatively constant. However, he figures that among the unregistered but eligible voters he might have about 1260 more voters of his party’s persuasion.
- Organization
McCabe has 18 precincts in his town with 2 precinct leaders authorized in each. He classifies his precincts into 4 groups according to their section of town: 6 precincts are in relatively low income areas, 4 precincts are in a newly built up section occupied by middle income people, 6 precincts are in an older section of town which could be classed as a middle income area, and 2 precincts are populated by relatively high income families. He makes two tables according to this breakdown classifying his precinct leaders first according to performance, second as to whether
he could rely on their support to keep his leadership of the town committee:
Precinct Leader Performance
McCabe has two potential rivals, both very able precinct leaders, both ambitious. Peter Moore from the “middle’ income old” area is a young lawyer who wants to get ahead. McCabe thinks he is apt to bi te off more than he can chew. Moore would like to run for office or be appointed to a job where he could get valuable experience.
George Meighan; in the “high income” area, is in his SO’s, successful, has turned over most of his business to his son, and would like to get into a political position where he could make his weight felt; He is very able, but not yet attuned
to the ways of politics nor experienced in the field.
McCabe has one political club in his party organization, a women’s club.
- Finance
McCabe’s town committee is in debt $1500.
His finance chairman of the campaign had been a poor choice — McCabe’s fault.
Fortunately, the chairman had indicated that one campaign was enough and McCabe is free to recruit another without embarrassment.
He has two possible choices for finance work. A hustling, likeable, young salesman, Joe Clark, going up fast, but without good connections. McCabe thinks Joe has in mind contacting successful men through the finance work and using the assignment as a showcase to demonstrate his ability. If so, he would have strong motivation to do a really good job.
The other choice is a man in his 60′ s, highly successful, still active in his accounting firm and well established in the community. He has been a regular contributor and solicitor of funds for 10 years. He has never tried to use his ability to raise money as a wedge to obtain anything and has always been available to help out when needed. He has two drawbacks — he is not a politician and is not a good organizer or leader. As so many politicians do, McCabe wonders what this man, Harry Thompson, wants. He doubts that Thompson will work hard forever without some substantial recognition.
4. Candidates
McCabe sees two problems in relation to choosing candidates. The first problem is the usual one of finding good men or women to run for local office. His second is to decide what higher office on a county, state or national level he might try to get for Hackendale
In the city McCabe has two possible candidates for a seat on the city Council. Peter Moore is one. Moore is, among other things, a member of the Wildlife Conservation Society. He is also a good candidate type and capable of doing a good politically savvy . Conservative on most political issues.
The other’ possibility is Milton Santangelo. He is a successful hardware store owner, highly respected in his area. Although successful, he has not moved out of his old neighborhood near the railroad station. Santangelo is active in the Elks, his church, and the Garibaldi Club. Forty-five years old, Santangelo has ‘an’ engineering degree from State College and played half-back on the local high school football team 28 years ago.
McCabe also has in mind two possible candidates for Mayor. Either would be acceptable for Councilman, too.
One is Walter Heath, past president of the chamber of commerce. While chairman of the civic affairs committee of the chamber, he was very effective in bringing about a complete property reassessment and also in finding a partial solution to the downtown parking problem. The first accomplishment left some scars, but the second was popular. The qualities that helped him become chamber president also make him a good candidate for Mayor. His record shows courage, ability, and effectiveness.
The other Mayor possibility is Jane Goldsmith. A lawyer, Goldsmith is somewhat liberal, and internationalist in her views. She has served on a state bar association committee and is well known for defending difficult cases and indigent cases. Several years before me formed a civic association which financed the erection of a public swimming pool with a combination of town funds and private subscriptions. A good trial lawyer, she could perform creditably on a speaking platform. Goldsmith served one term on the town council several years ago and acquitted herself very well. Popular almost everywhere in town.
McCabe would need one candidate for Mayor and one candidate for council.
- Higher office. McCabe decides that of all the possibilities, he would prefer to put a Hackendale man in the U. S. House of Representatives to replace the newly elected incumbent from the opposition party. The seat normally is held by a man of McCabe’s party — the recent election was an upset. There is no chance that
the beaten incumbent will be considered to run again.
The Congressional District covers 6 counties. This means McCabe must have the backing of his county leader and the leaders of two or three other counties to sew up the nomination for his choice.
However, the Congressional seat is not considered a great plum by political leaders in McCabe’s area, because a Congressman has very little patronage to dispense. Also, since unwritten rules preclude the defeated incumbent’s county from running another man for the seat again, and since one other county has a man for the state
senate seat, McCabe figures that these two counties are at least not contenders at best, possible supporters for his man, The state senator spot was filled by one of McCabe’s men from Hackendale before he was beaten. There are three counties in the state senatorial district, all of them wi thin the Congressional District.
McCabe has two possible candidates, both of whom would be rated as conservatives on National issues.
Roberta Kirkpatrick is the 32 year old secretary to the defeated incumbent.
She is a natural candidate, and has a very compelling manner. She is an articulate expert on national issues and a formidable speaker. She has been active in civic affairs. She is very well known in the district through her campaigning for her former boss and other party activities.
In addition to being a good candidate type, McCabe is drawn to Kirkpatrick because he believes a strong candidate like this young woman would pull the whole ticket alonq to some extent in a presidential year when national
issues would be prominent in the campaign. A young woman could stay in Congress a long time and acquire valuable
seniority. An older person would be likely to retire before assuming much seniority.
Bill Keeney, the other possible candidate, is a successful man in his early 60’s who would like to run. He has substantial friends in business, industry and the professions. As a candidate, the man lacks experience, and would have to be coached on issues. A passable speaker, good appearance, dignified. If McCable gets this man the nomination he is certain his financial problems would be close to solved. He also feels, however, that the ticket would have to carry this man to some extent.
5, Issues
The Wildlife Conservation Society, a vocal and active civic group, are fighting the proposed plan to fill in some marshland on the edge of town because it would drive away certain unusual birds.
Public interest in “Business Climate” and the need for new industry in town are building up as a result of chamber of commerce work. The plan to fill in marshland proposes to use the new land for industrial sites.
Schools are quite adequate, but a look at long-term population growth, and physical depreciation, indicates that provision for expanding the schools in the near future is desirable.
Liberal-conservative split is a problem in both parties.
A women’s civic group, a church group, and a local union are vocal on national and state welfare issues.
- Patronage
McCabe lines up some of the things he might want and assesses his bargaining position to get them as follows:
What He May Want
- Congressional Nomination
- Delegate to National Convention
- County Clerk nomination (it is generally conceded at county headquarters that Hackendale is
entitled to name the man for this post, next election) - Support of his County Leader in bargaining for Congressman and Delegate
What He Can Offer
- Can give up claim to the State senate seat which has been held by a Hackendale man.
- Can give up County Clerk spot he has a claim to.
- Has close relationship with Governor’s patronage man. This man can help him get some state jobs.
- Support to the county wanting the State Senate seat and to another county wanting help on some legislation in the state capital. (His ability to give this support is contingent on McCabe getting the backing of his own County Leader. )
McCabe intensely dislikes using patronage to build his organization, preferring to rely on public recognition, participation, and a good program of work to develop his people and hold them together. However, he knows that somebody is going to get top positions and he would prefer, wherever possible, to bargain able people from Hackendale into these spots rather than concede them to other leaders who might be less exacting in their judgement on who can fill which jobs capably.